Study warns of 'nightmarish' periods of extreme heat in tropical regions

Researchers fear billions of people will be overexposed to extremely dangerous temperatures "in a way that we just fundamentally haven't seen".

Severe heatwaves — made hotter and more frequent by climate change — are already being felt across the world, threatening human health, wildlife and crop yields. (AFP)

Millions of people in the tropics could be exposed to dangerous heat for half the year by 2100 even if humanity manages to meet climate goals, researchers have warned. In the most likely scenario, the world would miss those targets — potentially subjecting people across the tropics to harmful temperatures most days of each typical year by the end of the century, according to the study. If emissions go unchecked, large numbers of people in these regions could face potentially "nightmarish" periods of extreme heat. "There's a possibility that if we don't get our act together, billions of people are going to be really, really overexposed to these extremely dangerous temperatures in a way that we just fundamentally haven't seen," said lead author Lucas Vargas Zeppetello of Harvard University. Most climate projections predict temperature increases under different policy scenarios, but do not say which of those pathways is more likely. In this study, published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, researchers estimated potential exposure to dangerous heat and humidity. They used statistical projections to predict levels of carbon dioxide emissions from human activity and the resultant levels of global warming. They found that many people in tropical regions could face dangerous heat levels for half the year by the end of the century, even if the world limits temperature rises to the Paris climate deal goal of less than two degrees Celsius (35.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. Outside the tropics, they said deadly heatwaves will likely become annual occurrences. READ MORE: As the climate is changing, which animals will adjust and survive? [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmUy0OtG4Ec[/embed] 'Dangerous' levels  The researchers used a heat index that puts "dangerous" levels at 39.4C, while temperatures above 51C are considered "extremely dangerous" and totally unsafe for humans. The extreme measure was originally developed for people working in scorching indoor environments, like a ship's boiler room, and have rarely been observed outdoors, Zeppetello said. But by the end of the century, the researcher said it was "virtually guaranteed" that people in some parts of the tropics would experience this level of heat every year unless emissions are severely curtailed, with swathes of sub-Saharan Africa and India particularly at risk. "That's pretty scary," he told AFP, adding that even walking outside would be dangerous under those conditions. Earth has warmed nearly 1.2C so far and current predictions based on countries' carbon-cutting pledges would see the world far exceed the Paris Agreement's 2C target for 2100, let alone its more ambitious 1.5C aspiration. In their research,Zeppetello and colleagues analysed predictions from global climate models, human population projections, and looked at the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. They estimated that there is only a 0.1 percent chance of limiting global average warming to 1.5C by 2100, projecting that the world is likely to reach 1.8C by 2050. In 2100, the researchers found, the most likely global average temperature rise would be 3C, which Zeppetello said would spell "nightmarish" conditions for many people. In a worst case scenario, in which emissions continue unchecked, he said extreme temperatures could last up to two months every year in parts of the tropics. But he said it depends on how swiftly humanity can cut emissions. "We don't have to go to that world. There's nothing right now that says it is a certainty, but people need to be aware of just how dangerous that would be if it were to pass," he said. The researchers said under all scenarios there could be a large increase in heat-related illnesses, particularly among the elderly, vulnerable and those working outside. READ MORE: Drought hits half of China in worst heatwave on record Source: AFP

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'Extreme heat belt' to stretch from Texas to Wisconsin by 2053

The US should expect at least one day per year in which the heat index hits 52C in this region home to more than 100 million people, new study shows.

Beyond "Extreme Danger" days, areas across the whole country are expected to experience hotter temperatures, with varying degrees of resilience. (Allen Fredrickson / Reuters)

An area of intensely warm weather, the so-called "extreme heat belt", with at least one day per year in which the heat index hits 52C, is now expected to spread and cover a region home to more than 100 million people by the year 2053, according to a new study.

The research, carried out by the nonprofit First Street Foundation, used a peer-reviewed model built with public and third-party data to estimate heat risk at what they called a "hyper-local" scale of 30 square metres.

First Street Foundation's mission is to make climate risk modelling accessible to public, government and industry representatives, such as real estate investors and insurers.

A key finding from the study was that heat exceeding the threshold of the National Weather Service's highest category, called "Extreme Danger," or above 51.7C, was expected to impact 8.1 million people in 2023 and grow to 107 million people in 2053, a 13-fold increase.

This would encompass a geographic region stretching from northern Texas and Louisiana to Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin – inland areas far from the more temperate weather often seen near the coasts.

Heat index, also known as the apparent temperature, is what the outside temperature really feels like to the human body when relative humidity is combined with air temperature.

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[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPtQZrAVD8E[/embed]

How the model works

To create their model, the research team examined satellite-derived land surface temperatures and air temperatures between 2014 and 2020, to help understand the exact relationship between the two measurements.

This information was further studied by factoring in elevation, how water is absorbed in the area, the distance to surface water and the distance to a coast.

The model was then scaled to future climate conditions, using a "middle of the road" scenario envisaged by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in which carbon dioxide levels start falling by mid-century, but do not reach net zero by 2100.

Significant local temperature increases on horizon

Beyond "Extreme Danger" days, areas across the whole country are expected to experience hotter temperatures, with varying degrees of resilience.

"These increases in local temperatures result in significant implications for communities that are not acclimated to warmer weather relative to their normal climate," the report said.

For example, a 10 percent temperature increase in the northeastern state of Maine may be as dangerous as a 10 percent increase in the southwestern state of Texas, despite the higher absolute temperatures seen in Texas.

The biggest predicted shift in local temperature occurred in Miami-Dade County, Florida, which currently sees seven days per year at its hottest temperature of 39.4C. By 2053, that number is expected to increase to 34 days.

And the increase in air conditioning use that is likely to result from such temperature spikes will strain energy grids, the report warned, leading to more frequent, longer-lasting brownouts, a temporary reduction in voltage.

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Source: AFP

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With records poised to fall, city folk flee heat if they can

PROMISED LAND, Pa. -- It's not exactly flowing with milk and honey — just ask the area's struggling black bears — but Promised Land offered respite Sunday for city folks in the Northeast trying to escape a nearly weeklong hot spell that only threatened to intensify.

Those with the resources fled to pools, beaches and higher elevations like Promised Land State Park, at 1,800 feet (550 meters) in Pennsylvania's Pocono Mountains and a drive of about 2 1/2 hours from New York City and Philadelphia.

From the Pacific Northwest to the southern Great Plains to the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor, more than 85 million Americans were under excessive heat warnings or heat advisories issued by the National Weather Service. The agency warned of “extremely oppressive” conditions from Washington to Boston.

Even in Promised Land, temperatures were forecast to soar above 90 (32 Celsius), but with shade from the forests, cool lake water and mountain breezes, it was more than tolerable, visitors said.

Rosa Chavez, 47, a high school teacher in Manhattan, applied sunscreen at a beach on Promised Land Lake. She and friend Arlene Rodriguez, who accompanied her, had just experienced Europe's own heat wave while vacationing last week in Florence, Italy.

“The heat is following us,” said Rodriguez, 47, a real estate agent and property manager.

Numerous record highs were expected to be tied or broken in the Northeast, the weather service said.

Philadelphia was forecast to hit 100 degrees (38 Celsius) Sunday before even factoring in humidity. Newark, New Jersey, saw its fifth consecutive day of 100 degrees or higher, the longest such streak since records began in 1931. Boston also hit 100 degrees, surpassing the previous daily record high of 98 degrees set in 1933.

At least one heat-related death, in New York, has been reported. Around the region, athletic events were shortened or postponed.

Philadelphia officials extended a heat emergency through Sunday, sending workers to check on homeless people and knock on the doors of other vulnerable residents. The city also opened cooling centers and stationed air-conditioned buses at four intersections for people to cool off.

Forecasters urged people to wear light clothing, drink lots of water, limit time outside, and check on elderly people and pets.

Boston Mayor Michelle Wu declared a heat emergency through Monday and kept a dozen cooling centers open.

Organizers of the New York City Triathlon shortened the distances that athletes had to run and bike. This weekend's Boston Triathlon was put off until Aug. 20-21.

On the West Coast, forecasters warned of extreme heat arriving early this week and lingering until the weekend. Temperatures could break daily records in Seattle, Portland and Northern California by Tuesday and be the highest since a heat wave last year that killed hundreds of people across the Pacific Northwest.

Many homes in the often-rainy region lack air conditioning, and authorities cautioned that indoor heat is likely to build through the week, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses, something emergency medical officials in Boston also warned of.

Chavez, in Promised Land, said she has asthma and needs to keep her inhaler around, especially “when the heat is so thick I can't breathe.” The breezes and clearer air in the mountains help, she said.

It was already over 80 degrees at midmorning as Mhamed Moussa Boudjelthia, a 31-year-old Uber driver from Queens, fired up a grill at the beach to make kebabs. He and another friend from Queens had fled the hot chaos of the city for the day.

“There, it's really hot,” Boudjelthia said. “There's too much humidity, too.”

His friend, Kamel Mahiout, 35, agreed as he stood in a cooling breeze: “It's crazy in New York City.”

The heat was withering even less than an hour away, at lower elevations. In Scranton, Pennsylvania, Sunday's high was expected to be 97, and not punching below 70 at night.

“That also leads to the danger. People aren’t getting that relief overnight,” said weather service forecaster Lily Chapman. “That stress on the body is kind of cumulative over time.”

The area also has been drier than usual, she said.

Regular campers and cabin residents in Promised Land attribute unusually numerous bear sightings to the dry conditions. The animals roam neighborhoods and campsites for scraps as streams and berries dry up.

“Today's hot,” said Alex Paez, 34, of Scranton, sitting under a shade canopy at the beach in Promised Land. “If you don't need to be outside doing something productive, then stay in.”

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Contributing to this report were Associated Press writers Jennifer Peltz in New York City; Matthew Brown in Billings, Montana; Michael Hill in Albany, N.Y.: Jennifer McDermott in Providence, Rhode Island; and Curt Anderson in St. Petersburg, Fla.

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