Oil prices fall as recession fears, Iran production weigh on demand outlook

Oil prices extended losses on Tuesday after weak US and Chinese data reinforced recession expectations with signs that Iran is moving towards a nuclear deal adding to the downward pressure.

Abadan oil refinery in southwest Iran pictured from Iraqi side of Shatt al Arab south of Basra on September 21, 2019. (Essam Al-Sudani / Reuters)

Oil prices have extended losses after weak US and Chinese data spurred fresh concerns about a potential global recession that could hit energy demand.

Brent crude futures fell 90 cents, or 1 percent, to $94.20 a barrel by 00:03 GMT. WTI crude futures fell 81 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $88.60 a barrel.

Oil futures fell about 3 percent during the previous session as demand expectations are lowered in light of a string of soft economic indicators in major economies.

Signs that Iran is moving towards a nuclear deal added to the downward pressure on prices, with an agreement seen allowing the country to restart sales into the world market.

Analysts said Tehran could provide 2.5 million barrels a day, giving a much-needed shot in the arm to supplies, which have been hammered by sanctions on Russia in response to its attacks on Ukraine.

Libya has also boosted production, helping prices drop to six-month lows and wiping out the gains seen after the Ukraine conflict started.

But analysts warned that there might still be some way to go on an Iran agreement owing to upcoming US elections.

"A deal with Iran would likely not be popular with US voters and so is hard to envisage before the November mid-terms," said National Australia Bank's Ray Attrill.

"Markets are currently prone to optimism, though, and hopes for a deal... have added to downward pressure on oil prices."

Iran responded to the European Union's "final" draft text to save a 2015 nuclear deal on Monday, an EU official said, but provided no details on Iran's response to the text. The Iranian foreign minister called on the United States to show flexibility to resolve three remaining issues.

READ MORE: Libya 'confirms' its oil production is back to pre-blockade levels

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Disappointing China data

China's central bank cut lending rates to revive demand as data showed the economy slowing unexpectedly in July, with factory and retail activity squeezed by Beijing's zero-Covid policy and a property crisis.

China's fuel product exports will rebound in August to near the highest for the year so far after Beijing issued more quotas in June and July, although broader curbs are set to cap shipments at seven-year lows for 2022, analysts and traders said.

In the United States, total output in the major US shale oil basins will rise to 9.049 million bpd in September, the highest since March 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its productivity report on Monday.

Market participants awaited industry data on US crude stockpiles due later on Tuesday. Oil and gasoline stockpiles likely fell last week, while distillate inventories rose, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

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Hopes of cooling inflation

With surging oil prices a key driver of inflation to multi-decade highs around the world, the drop has fanned hopes that the headline figure could begin to come down.

That has led to speculation that central bank chiefs could lift rates at a slower pace, and then think about pivoting monetary policy to cuts as early as next year.

The prospect of a less painful hiking campaign has sparked a rally in equities from their June lows.

And on Tuesday, Asia built on Wall Street's upbeat performance.

Hong Kong and Shanghai rose after Beijing cut rates on Monday as the world's number two economy struggles to recover from a plunge in activity caused by extended Covid lockdowns.

Sydney, Seoul, Taipei, Manila, Jakarta and Wellington were also up, though Tokyo was flat and Singapore dipped.

Still, analysts warned that while equities are enjoying a bounce, the economic outlook could keep them subdued or even fall back again.

"The risk of the markets going below the June lows is quite high," Shane Oliver, at AMP Services, told Bloomberg Television. The weak data presage "weaker earnings growth ahead in the US", he added.

READ MORE: UN chief blasts oil firms profiting from energy crisis

Source: Reuters

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Market outlook 'too volatile' to chase stock, bond rallies, asset manager says

Investors should eschew chasing recent rallies in stocks and bonds given the current economic uncertainty, according to the chief investment officer of Swiss asset manager Prime Partners.

Francois Savary said it was hugely difficult to have clear economic visibility due to the particulars of the current investment cycle, such as the Covid-19 recovery and the Ukraine war.

"One of the key factors that supported the rally, which was a strong bond market during the month of July, has disappeared to a certain extent," he told CNBC's "Street Signs Europe" on Monday.

Additionally, while the second-quarter earnings season has been robust so far, a key issue looming is how much analysts will revise their third-quarter earnings forecasts. "So we consider that the two elements that can support a further rally in the equity market are not clearly there," Savary said.

As such, he said investors should "absolutely not" be chasing the rally in equities that has been underway since mid-July. The S&P 500 is up almost 13% from its July lows, closing at 4,140 on Monday, but remains down since the start of the year.

On bonds, Savary said, "we all know it's very difficult to make money on the bonds side. I would not chase the bond rally that we experienced over the last two months."

Corporate, government and high-yield bond funds saw sizeable inflows last month. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield — which moves inversely prices — has slipped to trade around 2.76% on Tuesday after topping 3.48% in mid-June.

Investors in global markets are navigating a whirlwind of inflationary pressures, recession risks and central bank tightening cycles, with even juggernauts such as Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank posting investment losses in the June quarter.

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"It's a very difficult market environment," Savary told CNBC. "You need to have some hedge funds [and] some kind of decorrelating strategy that are in your portfolio."

Keeping some investment in stocks will provide partial protection from inflation, he said, however investors will need to be tactical and observe the latest economic figures.

Meanwhile cash, Savary said, is useful for providing flexibility.

"It's interesting to have some cash to check because everything is possible in this kind of environment. We could have a recession, but you could also get a slow but satisfactory rate of growth in the coming 12 months," he said.

For now, Savary said the market has priced in a recession. "But the numbers are not telling you that there is a recession, so we need to be nimble and to check what is happening week-by-week and month-by-month, and we should have more visibility by the early fall, in the U.S. in particular."

U.S. gross domestic product fell for the first two quarters of the year, meeting a common definition of a recession, although the NBER defines it differently and the White House insists the U.S. is not currently in recession.

Investors will be looking to U.S. inflation data out Wednesday for further clues on the state of the world's largest economy. It comes after the jobs report for last month showed unexpected strength and increased expectations of a 75 basis points rate hike in September.

Source https://www.globalcourant.com/market-outlook-too-volatile-to-chase-stock-bond-rallies-asset-manager-says/?feed_id=8522&_unique_id=62f213a04a7dc