Stocks have broadly rallied in July, with the Nasdaq bouncing off earlier declines. And Wall Street is debating if markets have hit the bottom yet. Growth stocks such as tech have broadly slumped this year on the back of monetary tightening, recession and other risks. And Morgan Stanley in a Aug. 3 report warned that while the Nasdaq has bounced 16% since June 16, investors shouldn't get ahead of themselves. "This is not a market bottom, things are not going to go consistently up from here as we are going to be buying fewer tech products for a while, so everyone has fewer units to make as post-COVID demand = pre-COVID," the bank's analysts wrote. "Reality check – unlike 'big tech', the consumer discretionary related companies are giving more cautious guidance," they added. Morgan Stanley listed a few examples: Sony disappointed on guidance, Microsoft and Apple are slowing hiring. Microsoft, in addition, said small and medium businesses are spending less on IT and warned of a deteriorating PC market in June, the investment bank noted. The "outlier," Morgan Stanley said, is Apple. Consumption in China is down as well, thanks to the effects of Covid lockdowns, according to Morgan Stanley. That sluggishness will hit the e-commerce and consumer discretionary sectors, it said. Why shares may be bouncing The bank said that stocks are bouncing now for a few reasons — inflation expectations have eased due to declining commodity prices, and a perceived slowdown in interest rate hikes means less pressure on tech stocks. Earnings have been "lackluster, but not as bad as feared," it added. U.S. stocks mostly continued the rally this week. The Nasdaq is up 2.7% so far, while the S & P 500 hit its highest level since June on Wednesday, rising 0.5% so far on the week. But Morgan Stanley sounded a note of caution on what's ahead. Read more Asset manager predicts the next bull market — and reveals how to position for it Here’s how to invest for yields to beat a bad year for stocks and bonds — according to the pros Has the market hit bottom? Here’s what Wall Street has to say after the U.S. stock market rebound in July "Earnings aren't going to go higher — the issue is not on the current earnings season (that's backward looking) but we are on the wrong side of the profit cycle and it is the next earnings season and the one after, where we'll see write downs, top line pressure and mean reversion of margins," the analysts said. Tech stock picks Morgan Stanley said Samsung is one tech stock that can weather "the storm." It says the firm has a "tremendous range of resources" it hasn't yet monetized, and has seen its valuation drop by a level that's "most significant" since late 2018. Morgan Stanley gave the stock a price target of 70,000 Korean won ($53), around a 14% upside. The bank said it likes companies that have the ability to consistently grow better than their peers, naming chipmakers TSMC and Alchip as two such examples. Morgan Stanley gave TSMC a price target of 780 Taiwanese dollars, an upside of about 55%. It also gave Alchip a price target of 1,420 Taiwanese dollars, an upside of more than 120%. Morgan Stanley said it would sell parts of tech such as cloud semiconductors and Japanese semiconductor capital equipment.
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