Showing posts with label Asia_Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Asia_Economy. Show all posts

No appreciable business disruptions over China tensions

Most member companies of the American Chambers of Commerce in Taiwan said there has been no significant disruption to business despite escalating tensions between China and Taiwan in recent weeks, according to a survey.  China started conducting military exercises around Taiwan in recent weeks, but 77% of respondents said they have not faced "appreciable disruption" to their business, said Andrew Wylegala, the president of AmCham Taiwan. China launched military drills after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan despite warnings from China for weeks not to visit the island.  Taiwan is a self-ruled democracy, but Beijing considers the island part of its territory and a breakaway province. Nevertheless, though there hasn't been "panic" or an "exodus" of business in Taiwan, almost half of its members are predicting "some kind of dislocation and disruption" as China continues its military drills, said Wylegala.  There has been "no panic in the short term, but an appropriate degree of concern going forward,"  Wylegala said on CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Friday.  AmCham Taiwan conducted the survey of 529 member organizations from Aug. 8 to 17, just days after Pelosi's visit to Taipei.  According to the survey, 17% of respondents said they had already experienced disruption to their business, a third of which reported facing higher shipping or insurance costs and supply chain delays.  AmCham Taiwan also said 46% of companies surveyed expect to see increased Chinese military activity from 2022 to 2023 that would affect their operations. The remaining respondents do not anticipate being affected, or are uncertain if they would be.

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According to the business association, respondents raised the following when asked about the specific "spectrum of threats" they were worried about: concerns about disinformation and psychological campaigns targeting Taiwan; constraints or barriers on the island's periphery; and "sanctions, travel bans, boycotts, and embargoes against Taiwan products and people."

U.S.-Taiwan trade talks

The U.S. and Taiwan on Wednesday agreed to start talks on a trade and economic initiative as the U.S. continues to bolster its support for the island in light of rising tensions with China.  However, the likelihood of a free trade deal — which is broader in nature and something that Taiwan has been pushing for — remains unknown.  Wylegala said that Taiwan "has done a wonderful job as a partner of the U.S." and recent tensions have made a stronger case for a bilateral trade agreement. The U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade that was announced in June is "not a free trade agreement per se," Wylegala said, but it is nevertheless a "stepping stone,'' he added.

"Four years ago, we had no channels of economic discussions underway. And now we have four separate agreements and others waiting in the wings," he added.


Source https://www.globalcourant.com/no-appreciable-business-disruptions-over-china-tensions/?feed_id=14523&_unique_id=6304524e8b5e5

How Sri Lanka's economic collapse raises alarm bells for other emerging markets

During the 2010s, Sri Lanka had one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia. 

Things took a 180-degree turn at the end of the decade as the country's economy stumbled. In May 2022, the government defaulted on its debt for the first time in history. 

As inflation continued to spiral out of control, with a massive shortage of food, fuel and medicine for the country's 22 million people, Sri Lankans took to the street, forcing the president, Gotabaya Rajapaksato resign and flee the country. 

Even though Sri Lanka has a new president, Ranil Wickremesinghe, protests continue. Inflation has risen past 50% — and could hit 70% — making it harder for people to survive. 

Many experts believe that Sri Lanka's story is a warning sign for emerging markets. 

"Sri Lanka is facing its worst economic collapse in its modern history," said Sumudu W. Watugala, assistant professor of finance at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. "This is due to long-standing structural weaknesses exacerbated by a series of idiosyncratic shocks. Sri Lanka's crisis can be a warning sign to other developing nations because it's a classic emerging market crisis in many ways."

So what does Sri Lanka's economic crisis signal about similar economies and emerging markets? Watch the video to learn about more risks involved in emerging markets, how Sri Lanka's economy collapsed and the country's path forward. 


Source https://www.globalcourant.com/how-sri-lankas-economic-collapse-raises-alarm-bells-for-other-emerging-markets/?feed_id=10622&_unique_id=62f88ac1003ed

Morgan Stanley on market bottom and tech stocks, Nasdaq


Source https://www.globalcourant.com/morgan-stanley-on-market-bottom-and-tech-stocks-nasdaq/?feed_id=6763&_unique_id=62ec6ff0a8078

China competitiveness and chip bill passes House, goes to Biden

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) holds her weekly news conference with reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington, July 14, 2022.

Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

The House on Thursday passed bipartisan legislation to boost U.S. competitiveness with China by allocating billions of dollars toward domestic semiconductor manufacturing and science research.

The bill passed 243-187, with no Democrats voting against the bill. Twenty-five Republicans voted for the legislation, even after a last-minute push by GOP leaders to oppose it.

The bill, which passed the Senate on Wednesday, now heads to the White House for President Joe Biden to sign into law.

Lawmakers pushed to quickly approve the package before they depart Washington, D.C., for the August recess. But the final vote came after years of wrangling on Capitol Hill, with the legislation taking numerous forms, and names, in both chambers of Congress.

The ultimate version, known as the Chips and Science Act, includes more than $52 billion for U.S. companies producing computer chips, as well as billions more in tax credits to encourage investment in chip manufacturing. It also provides tens of billions of dollars to fund scientific research, and to spur the innovation and development of other U.S. technologies.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., called the bill "a major victory for American families and the American economy."

But House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., urged his colleagues to "reject this deeply flawed bill" and "start from scratch" in floor remarks before the vote.

The Senate passed the bill Wednesday in a 64-33 vote, drawing support from 17 Republicans. Among those yea votes was Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who previously warned that Republicans would not back the China competition bill if Democrats continued to pursue an unrelated reconciliation package.

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Hours after Wednesday's bipartisan Senate vote, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., revealed that they have struck a deal on a sweeping reconciliation bill. They hope to pass that package next week with just a simple majority in the Senate, which is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats with Vice President Kamala Harris casting any tiebreaking votes.

Shortly after that deal was announced, House Republican leaders urged their members to vote down the Chips and Science Act. They argued against giving multibillion-dollar subsidies to chipmakers at a time of historically high inflation, while also noting the timing of the Democrats' reconciliation deal.

"The partisan Democrat agenda has given us record inflation, and now they are poised to send our country into a crushing recession," the office of House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La., said in a memo Wednesday night.

Some Republicans who opposed the bill said it lacked "guardrails" to prevent any of the funding from winding up in China's hands. Other critics have argued that the U.S. would have to spend many billions more to have a real chance at competing with the world's leading chipmakers.

But the bill's advocates say it is vital to America's economy and national security to build more chips, which are increasingly critical components in a vast array of products including consumer electronics, automobiles, health-care equipment and weapons systems.

The chips have been in short supply during the Covid-19 pandemic. Factory shutdowns at the beginning of the outbreak sidelined chip production in Asia while consumer demand for autos and upgraded home electronics that need the chips surged during the lockdowns. The U.S. share of global chip production also has fallen sharply in recent decades, while China and other nations have invested heavily in the industry.

The U.S. also makes few of the most advanced types of semiconductors, which are largely produced in Taiwan, the epicenter of rising political tensions with China.

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Much modern warfare requires sophisticated semiconductors — each Javelin missile launching system contains hundreds, for instance — leading U.S. defense officials to worry about the nation's reliance on foreign producers for its chip supply.

Biden has also blamed the chip shortage for the sky-high inflation that has dogged his presidency. A lack of chips available for new-car manufacturing has been linked to soaring prices for used cars, which are pushing inflation higher.

"America invented the semiconductor. It's time to bring it home," Biden said this week.


Source https://www.globalcourant.com/china-competitiveness-and-chip-bill-passes-house-goes-to-biden/?feed_id=3522&_unique_id=62e2e335eb890

Singapore's GIC reports stable returns amid uncertainty over inflation

The logo of the Government of Singapore Investment Corp. (GIC)

Munshi Ahmed | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC reported stable returns for the year but warned of "profound uncertainties" as investors face worries about inflation, pandemic risks and geopolitical challenges.

The fund's portfolio recorded an annualized dollar nominal rate of return of 7% over a 20-year period ending March 31, 2022, GIC said in its annual report published on Wednesday.

It also achieved an annualized rolling 20-year real rate of return of 4.2 % for the period ending March 31, after stripping away inflation. GIC doesn't publish annual results.

Still GIC, which is among the world's largest investors, painted a rather bleak picture of the global environment.  

"Years of concerns over deflation have turned into worries of elevated inflation, forcing economic policymakers to reverse stimulus policies," said Chief Executive Lim Chow Kiat in the report.

"At the same time, the clock for the climate crisis is ticking, pandemic risk lingers on, and geopolitical conflicts and domestic political schisms are growing. There are no easy choices for policymakers and business leaders, and in turn, for investors."

Rising inflation


Source https://www.globalcourant.com/singapores-gic-reports-stable-returns-amid-uncertainty-over-inflation/?feed_id=2710&_unique_id=62e0dd16e5628